Improved early detection of ovarian cancer using longitudinal multimarker models

© The Author(s) 2020. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.Background: Ovarian cancer has a poor survival rate due to late diagnosis and improved methods are needed for its early detection. Our primary objective was to identify and incorporate additional biomarkers into longitudinal models to improve on the performance of CA125 as a first-line screening test for ovarian cancer. Methods: This case–control study nested within UKCTOCS used 490 serial serum samples from 49 women later diagnosed with ovarian cancer and 31 control women who were cancer-free. Proteomics-based biomarker discovery was carried out using pooled samples and selected candidates, including those from the literature, assayed in all serial samples. Multimarker longitudinal models were derived and tested against CA125 for early detection of ovarian cancer. Results: The best performing models, incorporating CA125, HE4, CHI3L1, PEBP4 and/or AGR2, provided 85.7% sensitivity at 95.4% specificity up to 1 year before diagnosis, significantly improving on CA125 alone. For Type II cases (mostly high-grade serous), models achieved 95.5% sensitivity at 95.4% specificity. Predictive values were elevated earlier than CA125, showing the potential of models to improve lead time. Conclusions: We have identified candidate biomarkers and tested longitudinal multimarker models that significantly improve on CA125 for early detection of ovarian cancer. These models now warrant independent validation.Peer reviewe

Circulating HPV DNA as a Biomarker for Pre-Invasive and Early Invasive Cervical Cancer: A Feasibility Study

BACKGROUND: High-risk HPV infection is responsible for >99% of cervix cancers (CC). In persistent infections that lead to cancer, the tumour breaches the basement membrane, releasing HPV-DNA into the bloodstream (cHPV-DNA). A next-generation sequencing assay (NGS) for detection of plasma HPV circulating DNA (cHPV-DNA) has demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity in patients with locally advanced cervix cancers. We hypothesised that cHPV-DNA is detectable in early invasive cervical cancers but not in pre-invasive lesions (CIN). METHODS: Blood samples were collected from patients with CIN (n = 52) and FIGO stage 1A-1B CC (n = 12) prior to treatment and at follow-up. DNA extraction from plasma, followed by NGS, was used for the detection of cHPV-DNA. RESULTS: None of the patients with pre-invasive lesions were positive for CHPV-DNA. In invasive tumours, plasma from one patient (10%) reached the threshold of positivity for cHPV-DNA in plasma. CONCLUSION: Low detection of cHPV-DNA in early CC may be explained by small tumour size, poorer access to lymphatics and circulation, and therefore little shedding of cHPV-DNA in plasma at detectable levels. The detection rate of cHPV-DNA in patients with early invasive cervix cancer using even the most sensitive of currently available technologies lacks adequate sensitivity for clinical utility

Risk algorithm using serial biomarker measurements doubles the number of screen-detected cancers compared with a single-threshold rule in the United Kingdom collaborative trial of ovarian cancer screening

PURPOSE: Cancer screening strategies have commonly adopted single-biomarker thresholds to identify abnormality. We investigated the impact of serial biomarker change interpreted through a risk algorithm on cancer detection rates. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, 46,237 women, age 50 years or older underwent incidence screening by using the multimodal strategy (MMS) in which annual serum cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) was interpreted with the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA). Women were triaged by the ROCA: normal risk, returned to annual screening; intermediate risk, repeat CA-125; and elevated risk, repeat CA-125 and transvaginal ultrasound. Women with persistently increased risk were clinically evaluated. All participants were followed through national cancer and/or death registries. Performance characteristics of a single-threshold rule and the ROCA were compared by using receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: After 296,911 women-years of annual incidence screening, 640 women underwent surgery. Of those, 133 had primary invasive epithelial ovarian or tubal cancers (iEOCs). In all, 22 interval iEOCs occurred within 1 year of screening, of which one was detected by ROCA but was managed conservatively after clinical assessment. The sensitivity and specificity of MMS for detection of iEOCs were 85.8% (95% CI, 79.3% to 90.9%) and 99.8% (95% CI, 99.8% to 99.8%), respectively, with 4.8 surgeries per iEOC. ROCA alone detected 87.1% (135 of 155) of the iEOCs. Using fixed CA-125 cutoffs at the last annual screen of more than 35, more than 30, and more than 22 U/mL would have identified 41.3% (64 of 155), 48.4% (75 of 155), and 66.5% (103 of 155), respectively. The area under the curve for ROCA (0.915) was significantly (P = .0027) higher than that for a single-threshold rule (0.869). CONCLUSION: Screening by using ROCA doubled the number of screen-detected iEOCs compared with a fixed cutoff. In the context of cancer screening, reliance on predefined single-threshold rules may result in biomarkers of value being discarded

Multi-marker longitudinal algorithms incorporating HE4 and CA125 in ovarian cancer screening of postmenopausal women

© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Longitudinal CA125 algorithms are the current basis of ovarian cancer screening. We report on longitudinal algorithms incorporating multiple markers. In the multimodal arm of United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), 50,640 postmenopausal women underwent annual screening using a serum CA125 longitudinal algorithm. Women (cases) with invasive tubo-ovarian cancer (WHO 2014) following outcome review with stored annual serum samples donated in the 5 years preceding diagnosis were matched 1:1 to controls (no invasive tubo-ovarian cancer) in terms of the number of annual samples and age at randomisation. Blinded samples were assayed for serum human epididymis protein 4 (HE4), CA72-4 and anti-TP53 autoantibodies. Multimarker method of mean trends (MMT) longitudinal algorithms were developed using the assay results and trial CA125 values on the training set and evaluated in the blinded validation set. The study set comprised of 1363 (2–5 per woman) serial samples from 179 cases and 181 controls. In the validation set, area under the curve (AUC) and sensitivity of longitudinal CA125-MMT algorithm were 0.911 (0.871–0.952) and 90.5% (82.5–98.6%). None of the longitudinal multi-marker algorithms (CA125-HE4, CA125-HE4-CA72-4, CA125-HE4-CA72-4-anti-TP53) performed better or improved on lead-time. Our population study suggests that longitudinal HE4, CA72-4, anti-TP53 autoantibodies adds little value to longitudinal serum CA125 as a first-line test in ovarian cancer screening of postmenopausal women.Peer reviewe

Association of serum sex steroid receptor bioactivity and sex steroid hormones with breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women

Postmenopausal women with elevated serum sex steroids have an increased risk of breast cancer. Most of this risk is believed to be exerted through binding of the sex steroids to their receptors. For the first time, we investigate the association of estrogen receptor (ER) and androgen receptor (AR) serum bioactivity (SB) in addition to hormone levels in samples from women with breast cancer collected before diagnosis. Two hundred postmenopausal women participating in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening who developed ER-positive breast cancer 0.6–5 years after sample donation were identified and matched to 400 controls. ER and AR bioassays were used to measure ERα, ERβ, and AR SB. Androgen and estrogen levels were measured with immunoassays. Subjects were classified according to quintiles of the respective marker among controls and the associations between SB and hormones with breast cancer risk were determined by logistic regression analysis. ERα and ERβ SB were significantly higher before diagnosis compared with controls, while estrogens showed no difference. Women had a twofold increased breast cancer risk if ERα SB (odds ratio (OR), 2.114; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.050–4.425; P=0.040) was in the top quintile >2 years before diagnosis or estrone (OR, 2.205; 95% CI, 1.104–4.586; P=0.029) was in the top quintile <2 years before diagnosis. AR showed no significant association with breast cancer while androstenedione (OR, 3.187; 95% CI, 1.738–6.044; P=0.0003) and testosterone (OR, 2.145; 95% CI, 1.256–3.712; P=0.006) were significantly higher compared with controls and showed a strong association with an almost threefold increased breast cancer risk independent of time to diagnosis. This study provides further evidence on the association of androgens and estrogens with breast cancer. In addition, it reports that high ER but not AR SB is associated with increased breast risk >2 years before diagnosis

Ovarian cancer screening and mortality in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a randomised controlled trial

Background Ovarian cancer has a poor prognosis, with just 40% of patients surviving 5 years. We designed this trial to establish the eff ect of early detection by screening on ovarian cancer mortality. Methods In this randomised controlled trial, we recruited postmenopausal women aged 50–74 years from 13 centres in National Health Service Trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Exclusion criteria were previous bilateral oophorectomy or ovarian malignancy, increased risk of familial ovarian cancer, and active non-ovarian malignancy. The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants in blocks of 32 using computergenerated random numbers to annual multimodal screening (MMS) with serum CA125 interpreted with use of the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm, annual transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS), or no screening, in a 1:1:2 ratio. The primary outcome was death due to ovarian cancer by Dec 31, 2014, comparing MMS and USS separately with no screening, ascertained by an outcomes committee masked to randomisation group. All analyses were by modified intention to screen, excluding the small number of women we discovered after randomisation to have a bilateral oophorectomy, have ovarian cancer, or had exited the registry before recruitment. Investigators and participants were aware of screening type. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032. Findings Between June 1, 2001, and Oct 21, 2005, we randomly allocated 202 638 women: 50 640 (25·0%) to MMS, 50 639 (25·0%) to USS, and 101 359 (50·0%) to no screening. 202 546 (>99·9%) women were eligible for analysis: 50 624 (>99·9%) women in the MMS group, 50 623 (>99·9%) in the USS group, and 101 299 (>99·9%) in the no screening group. Screening ended on Dec 31, 2011, and included 345 570 MMS and 327 775 USS annual screening episodes. At a median follow-up of 11·1 years (IQR 10·0–12·0), we diagnosed ovarian cancer in 1282 (0·6%) women: 338 (0·7%) in the MMS group, 314 (0·6%) in the USS group, and 630 (0·6%) in the no screening group. Of these women, 148 (0·29%) women in the MMS group, 154 (0·30%) in the USS group, and 347 (0·34%) in the no screening group had died of ovarian cancer. The primary analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model gave a mortality reduction over years 0–14 of 15% (95% CI –3 to 30; p=0·10) with MMS and 11% (–7 to 27; p=0·21) with USS. The Royston-Parmar fl exible parametric model showed that in the MMS group, this mortality eff ect was made up of 8% (–20 to 31) in years 0–7 and 23% (1–46) in years 7–14, and in the USS group, of 2% (–27 to 26) in years 0–7 and 21% (–2 to 42) in years 7–14. A prespecified analysis of death from ovarian cancer of MMS versus no screening with exclusion of prevalent cases showed significantly diff erent death rates (p=0·021), with an overall average mortality reduction of 20% (–2 to 40) and a reduction of 8% (–27 to 43) in years 0–7 and 28% (–3 to 49) in years 7–14 in favour of MMS. Interpretation Although the mortality reduction was not signifi cant in the primary analysis, we noted a signifi cant mortality reduction with MMS when prevalent cases were excluded. We noted encouraging evidence of a mortality reduction in years 7–14, but further follow-up is needed before firm conclusions can be reached on the efficacy and cost-eff ectiveness of ovarian cancer screening

Mismatch: A comparative study of vitamin D status in British-Bangladeshi migrants

Background and objectives Low levels of vitamin D among dark-skinned migrants to northern latitudes and increased risks for associated pathologies illustrate an evolutionary mismatch between an environment of high ultraviolet (UV) radiation to which such migrants are adapted and the low-UV environment to which they migrate. Recently, low levels of vitamin D have also been associated with higher risks for contracting COVID-19. South Asians in the UK have higher risk for low vitamin D levels. In this study, we assessed vitamin D status of British-Bangladeshi migrants compared to white British residents and Bangladeshis still living in Bangladesh (‘sedentees’). Methodology The cross-sectional study compared serum vitamin D levels among 149 women aged 35-59, comprising British-Bangladeshi migrants (n = 50), white UK neighbors (n = 54) and Bangladeshi sedentees (n = 45). Analyses comprised multivariate models to assess serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), and associations with anthropometric, lifestyle, health and migration factors. Results Vitamin D levels in Bangladeshi migrants were very low: mean 25(OH)D = 32.2 nmol/L ± 13.0, with 29% of migrants classified as deficient (<25nmol/L) and 94% deficient or insufficient (≤50nmol/L). Mean levels of vitamin D were significantly lower among British-Bangladeshis compared to Bangladeshi sedentees (50.9 nmol/L ± 13.3, (p < 0.001), and were also lower than in white British women (55.3 nmol/L ± 20.9). Lower levels of vitamin D were associated with increased body mass index and low iron status. Conclusions and implications We conclude that lower exposure to sunlight in the UK reduces Vitamin D levels in Bangladeshi migrants. Recommending supplements could prevent potentially adverse health outcomes associated with vitamin D deficiency. Lay Summary Vitamin D deficiency is one example of mismatch between an evolved trait and novel environments. Here we compare vitamin D status of dark-skinned British-Bangladeshi migrants in the UK to Bangladeshis in Bangladesh and white British individuals. Migrants had lower levels of vitamin D and are at risk for associated pathologies

Serum HE4 and diagnosis of ovarian cancer in postmenopausal women with adnexal masses

Background Transvaginal ultrasound and serum CA125 are routinely used for differential diagnosis of pelvic adnexal mass. Use of Human Epididymis 4 (HE4) was approved in the United States in 2011. However, there is scarcity of studies evaluating the additional value of HE4. Objective To evaluate the performance characteristics of transvaginal ultrasound, CA125 and HE4 for differential diagnosis of ovarian cancer in postmenopausal women with adnexal masses. Study design Cohort study nested within the screen arms of the multicentre randomised controlled trial United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), based in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. In UKCTOCS, 48,230 women randomised to transvaginal ultrasound screening and 50,078 to multimodal screening (serum CA125 interpreted by Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm with second line transvaginal ultrasound) underwent the first (prevalence) screen. Women with adnexal lesions and/or persistently elevated risk were clinically assessed and underwent surgery or follow-up for a median of 10.9 years. Banked samples taken within 6 months of transvaginal ultrasound from all clinically assessed women were assayed for HE4 and CA125. Area under the curve and sensitivity for diagnosing ovarian cancer of multiple penalized logistic regression models incorporating logCA125, logHE4, age and simple ultrasound features of the adnexal mass were compared. Results Of 1,590 (158 multimodal, 1432 ultrasound) women with adnexal masses, 78 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer (48 invasive epithelial ovarian - 14 Type I, 34 Type II; 24 borderline epithelial; 6 non-epithelial) within one-year of scan. The area under the curve (0.893 vs 0.896;p=0.453) and sensitivity (74.4%vs75.6%;p=0.564) at fixed specificity of 90% of the model incorporating age, ultrasound and CA125 was similar to that also including HE4. Both models had high sensitivity for invasive epithelial ovarian (89.6%) and Type II (>91%) cancers. Conclusions Our population cohort study suggests that HE4 adds little value to concurrent use of CA125 and transvaginal ultrasound in the differential diagnosis of adnexal masses in postmenopausal women

Circulating HPV DNA as a Biomarker for Pre-Invasive and Early Invasive Cervical Cancer: A Feasibility Study

Background: High-risk HPV infection is responsible for >99% of cervix cancers (CC). In persistent infections that lead to cancer, the tumour breaches the basement membrane, releasing HPV-DNA into the bloodstream (cHPV-DNA). A next-generation sequencing assay (NGS) for detection of plasma HPV circulating DNA (cHPV-DNA) has demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity in patients with locally advanced cervix cancers. We hypothesised that cHPV-DNA is detectable in early invasive cervical cancers but not in pre-invasive lesions (CIN). Methods: Blood samples were collected from patients with CIN (n = 52) and FIGO stage 1A-1B CC (n = 12) prior to treatment and at follow-up. DNA extraction from plasma, followed by NGS, was used for the detection of cHPV-DNA. Results: None of the patients with pre-invasive lesions were positive for CHPV-DNA. In invasive tumours, plasma from one patient (10%) reached the threshold of positivity for cHPV-DNA in plasma. Conclusion: Low detection of cHPV-DNA in early CC may be explained by small tumour size, poorer access to lymphatics and circulation, and therefore little shedding of cHPV-DNA in plasma at detectable levels. The detection rate of cHPV-DNA in patients with early invasive cervix cancer using even the most sensitive of currently available technologies lacks adequate sensitivity for clinical utility